How many people really are watching ‘The Mandalorian’? Data firms offer numbers that Disney and Netflix won’t – Benchmarking Change- Tempemail – Blog – 10 minute

For those obsessed with who is winning the video streaming wars, one metric matters: subscriber growth. But Netflix Inc and now Walt Disney Co – with its November launch of Disney+ – typically release that figure quarterly, leaving outsiders to guess at subscriber growth in any way they can.
A cottage industry of companies has sprung up to fill that vacuum. Firms like Apptopia, Sensor Tower and App Annie, born years ago to track how many people download mobile apps, are now playing a bigger role in the streaming war that kicks into gear this year as AT&T Inc’s WarnerMedia and Comcast Corp-owned NBCUniversal launch new services.
These firms sell mobile download data they arrive at by applying algorithmic magic to publicly available data and data from other apps. The process is propriety, they say, and opaque to outsiders.
The resulting figures – which are approximations of mobile downloads, not the new subscribers the companies disclose – do not correlate exactly with subscriber growth, but are influential.
Third-party data is widely reported in the press, including in Reuters stories. Bloomberg offers Apptopia’s mobile data to its clients. The data is also cited in research from Wall Street firms including Credit Suisse, Bank of America and Wells Fargo – sometimes as a worthwhile indication of performance, and other times dismissively.
The data moves markets: On Nov. 26, shortly after Apptopia released data indicating that Disney+ was averaging nearly a million new subscribers a day – a report that was covered widely in the press – Disney shares rose 2.3 percent to US$153.43, setting a new record high.
To survey how often these firms get it right, Reuters reviewed eight quarters of data from Netflix, and the same amount of data from two of the third-party app measurement firms. It found that Sensor Tower’s past eight quarters’ of Netflix mobile download data has directionally if not precisely mirrored Netflix global paid membership growth. Apptopia download data mirrored it directionally in all but two quarters.
Even so, the data is controversial: critics say these firms do a poor job of tracking how many people drop a streaming service, and as such, should not be viewed as a proxy for growth.
“If we had based our conclusions on app download data, we’d be very incorrect about what Netflix is doing and everything in any given quarter,” said MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson, who said his firm had used Apptopia and Sensor Tower, but no longer does so.
Netflix did not respond to requests for comment. Disney and App Annie declined to comment.
Executives from Sensor Tower and Apptopia emphasize that the data reflects trends, not precise growth.
“The reason people like and trust the mobile data is that mobile gets the most screen time — it’s indicative of how people are living their lives,” says Adam Blacker, a vice president at Apptopia. “What we’re doing is nailing the trends and the percentage swings.”
Recent quarters of Netflix mobile download data from Apptopia and Sensor Tower, while directionally mostly correct, have been off in notable ways. Apptopia recorded negative download growth for Netflix in the second and fourth quarters of 2019 — compared to the 22 percent and 20 percent global paid membership growth the company reported, respectively. In the third quarter of 2019, Apptopia reported single-digit growth compared with an increase of 21 percent reported by Netflix.
“We’re not going to be right 100 percent of the time,” says Blacker about those quarters. “We’re not going to tell you to trade on download data.”
Sensor Tower reported single-digit global mobile app install growth for Netflix in the second and fourth quarters of 2019, compared with growth of 22 percent and 20 percent, respectively, reported by Netflix.
“We’re only looking at mobile,” said Randy Nelson, head of mobile insights at Sensor Tower. “We only capture that first time install – it could be someone downloading on their phone; could be someone who’s been a Netflix subscriber for a while but never put it on their phone. That and the fact our figures are estimates is it will never be 1 to 1.”
Despite that limitation, the data may become more ubiquitous as new streaming services launch.
“I think everyone’s looking for an edge on subscribers,” says Nathanson. “These stocks trade on subscribers.”

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From holograms to wearables: how we’ll be watching the Super Bowl in 10 years- Tempemail – Blog – 10 minute

Wow, what a game. Can you believe the 49ers did that? And then the Chiefs did that!? Andy Reid is probably knee-deep in cheeseburgers right now. Unbelievable. Anyway, let’s take a look at how we’ll be watching the Super Bowl 10 years from now.
It’s 2030. You open the door to your friend’s apartment, beer in hand, ready to watch Super Bowl 64.
Doors will probably still exist 10 years from now, but the beer might be gluten free. The party’s requisite wings may be plant-based and there are no plastic cups in sight, but the Super Bowl will still be a tentpole event where friends and family gather to watch the game and its highly anticipated commercials.
What will change is how we watch – or experience – the game and all the surrounding branding. Burgeoning technologies such as 5G, virtual reality and edge computing will reshape the in-home fan experience into a multi-screen, personalized event.
Internet-delivered broadcast TV
It’s just about kickoff, and by now you’ve found your seat on the crowded couch. Your friend says, ‘TV on,’ and up comes the game.
Fox, CBS and NBC rotate the Super Bowl broadcast yearly as part of their rights deal with the NFL, which expires in 2022. By 2030, maybe Amazon will stream the game, a step up from its current Thursday Night Football casts.
Instead, maybe an aggressive upstart like DAZN will nab rights, or NBC will take the game to its digital platform, Peacock. Or Locast will be legalized, and everyone will ditch their antennas in favor of IP-delivered broadcast TV, the same way they’ve ditched their cable boxes for Netflix and Hulu.
Crowds, whether at home or in bars, will still gather around the big screen, says Jesse Redniss, general manager of WarnerMedia’s Innovation Lab. But in 10 years, broadcast TV will be streamed.
“Ten years from now, everything is going to be IP-delivered,” says Redniss.
Live events, especially sports, have been the one thing keeping the traditional TV business afloat amid disruption from streaming services. Brian Ring, principal analyst at Ring Digital, says in 10 years streaming services should have the technical ability to host 100 million Super Bowl viewers at once, but the NFL would only consider a streamer as a serious partner if it has significant scale.
“I would not be surprised to see a free streaming footprint that almost matches an [over-the-air] footprint,” says Ring.
Streaming the Super Bowl is becoming increasingly popular. In 2019, 98.2 people watched the game the old fashioned way, according to Nielsen. But the average minute audience, which accounts for streaming, came in at an additional 2.6 million viewers, up 31% from the year prior.
You’ve finished reminiscing about the days when you paid upwards of $100 on your cable bill, the game chugs along and now it’s time for the first commercial break.
All the talks of addressable TV advertising don’t make its way to the Super Bowl, where advertisers still value the mass reach, water-cooler effect the game offers. Instead, they take to the second screen to target you.
“We can have mass reach within TV, but most people have their phone with them where we could target them,” says Mary Ann Reilly, senior vice-president, head of North America marketing at Visa.
Enter interactivity
Advertisers will air their big spot to the masses and tag it with a call-to-action asking viewers to stick with the brand on their other devices throughout the game.
“By 10 years, all of these advertisers are going to be experts at navigating people away from the TV and right back into it,” says Ring.
Bloss, 2030’s trendy DTC start-up, just debuted its first TV commercial with a 30-second spot that promises $10 off its eco-friendly chewing gum subscription box service if you play their virtual reality game before the Super Bowl ends.
Luckily your host has a VR headset. You grab it and dive in. After entering all your information (that’s what Bloss is really after, by the way), you virtually chew your way through game and get your prize. The actual game is about to start up again, but you figure you’ll stay within the VR experience for the last few minutes of the quarter.
It’s like sitting in the actual stadium. You’re at the 50 yard line taking in all the sights and sounds. The only thing that doesn’t match are the sponsors. The VR stadium is an addressable medium, so your stadium sponsor is a sneaker brand, while someone else across the country is seeing a soft drink company.
If you’re lucky enough (and have deep enough wallets) to physically be at the game, your wearable tech will guide your in-stadium experience.
Chris Weil, chief executive officer of Momentum Worldwide, says the low latency of a 5G network will make live events more immersive and interactive.
“Let’s say it’s a Niners/Chiefs rematch in 2030,” says Weil, “and as you enter the stadium, the ‘connected clothing’ you’re wearing ushers you through a personalized brand experience that is catered to you and the team you are supporting.”
Greg Paull, co-founder and principal at consulting firm R3, says this proliferation of technology creates new avenues for brands, and it means fans will engage with the game in personalized environments both in-stadium and out.
But all that new tech-enabled supply could make traditional event and stadium sponsorships less valuable.
“For example, there could be a VR sideline pass that allows you to ‘be’ right on the sideline,” says Paull. “That experience will be owned by a sponsor that is completely different from the sponsor of the event or stadium. In much the way entertainment brand licensing has sliced the same brand into multiple channels for consumption, the same will be true for events.”
Unbound by time slot
You’d like to be around actual people now, so you re-enter reality and pass the headset off to the next person. The game goes on. A touchdown here, a field goal there, and a flag over there for a personal foul that has everyone scratching their head trying to understand the NFL’s latest player-protection rule change.
Now it’s time for the halftime show. A TikTok star, who right now is only in third grade, is about to take center stage. But the youngling has been all over social media with the halftime sponsor promoting the show, giving other brands plenty of opportunities to sneak in.
“The halftime show is no longer bound by time slot,” says Rebecca Paoletti, chief executive officer and co-founder of video agency CakeWorks, referring to social posts from Jennifer Lopez and Shakira that have given the show’s sponsor, Pepsi, an extra boost.
But that proliferation of social content will give other advertisers the chance to organically reach the Super Bowl, and the performer’s, audiences.
“Any brand can comment,” says Paoletti.
New holograms, same brands
Halftime’s over. The game is close, and you’re in a betting mood. You and a group of like-minded spenders head to a different room to watch betting-centric cast of the game.
The Super Bowl broadcast won’t go away, but instead there will be peripheral viewing options. Maybe your favorite streamer on Twitch has a stream of the game. Or maybe Fox will have a gambling-themed stream that could feature data overlays seen on some secondary broadcasts today.
You’ll be placing live bets on your cell phone. Thanks to 5G, you won’t have to worry about any lag between devices. What you see on the TV screen is in sync with your bets.
Visa is the official payment partner for the NFL through 2025, and it wants to be wherever the fans are, whether that’s in-stadium or eventually in VR. Visa already allows legal gambling transactions on its network, so why not power the betting experience?
Redniss says brands have an opportunity to power emerging spaces, such as betting platforms, instead of simply slapping an ad down.
“[Are] you inserting a 15- or 30-second ad experience into it? Or are you helping to power and enable some of this new technology, and experience alongside the technology provider and the storytellers,” says Redniss.
That could even include holograms.
You’ve just won a $200 bet. Stoked, you go to the kitchen to relive the magic with anyone who may have missed your triumphant moment.
Standing over the kitchen table, you wave your hands and bring up a three-dimensional replay of your money-making play. With just a few gestures, you can zoom in and out, spin it around, and play it over and over again to your heart’s content. Virtually etched along the bottom of the digital field, it says: “Powered by Bloss.”
Redness attributes this capability to “volumetric capture” of live events, similar to Intel’s True View. Advanced camera technology, 5G-enabled stadiums and edge computing will combine to capture a 360-degree view of the Super Bowl, and all the different ways of consuming the game will put AR replays, including holograms, in the hand of individual viewers.
The game is finally over. Money in virtual wallet and discounted gum on the way, you say your goodbyes and head to your connected car.
Your nephew is a fan of the winning team, and since Super Bowl merch is always immediately available you buy some on your ride home. You place your order through the car’s voice controls, and then you place your hand on the center console. Your car reads your palm print and validates your purchase.
“All of those mediums, the connected car, biometric payments… that is where things are going,” says Reilly. “So that’s where multi-sensory branding comes in because you need to keep the brand alive when you don’t necessarily see it or touch it with a physical card.”
The future is scary, so click here to watch this year’s Super Bowl ads and distract yourself from the great unknown of what’s to come

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YouTube’s new AR feature lets you virtually try on makeup while watching videos – gpgmail

Earlier this summer, YouTube announced its plans for a new AR feature for virtual makeup try-on that works directly in the YouTube app. Today, the first official campaign to use the “Beauty Try-On” feature has now launched, allowing viewers to try on and shop lipsticks from MAC Cosmetics from YouTube creator Roxette Arisa’s makeup tutorial video.

Makeup tutorials are hugely popular on YouTube, so an integration where you can try on the suggested looks yourself makes a ton of sense. While a lipstick try-on feature isn’t exactly groundbreaking — plenty of social media apps offer a similar filter these days — it could lead to more complex AR makeup integrations further down the road.

The new AR feature only works when you’re watching the video from a mobile device, and the YouTube app is updated to the latest version.

Then, when watching the video, you’ll see a button that says “try it on” which will launch the camera in a split-screen view. The video will continue to play as you scroll through the various lipstick shades below, applying the different colors to see which one works best. Unlike some of the filters in social apps like Instagram and Snapchat, the colors are evenly aligned with your lips and not bleeding out the edges. The result is a very natural look.

Image from iOS 1MAC Cosmetics will work with creators through YouTube’s branded content division, Famebit. The program connects brands with YouTube influencers who then market their products as paid sponsorships.

MAC is the first partner for this AR feature, but more will likely follow.

Prior to launch, YouTube tested the AR Beauty Try-On with several beauty brands, and found that 30% of viewers chose to active the experience in the YouTube iOS.

Those who did were fairly engaged, spending more than 80 seconds trying on virtual lipstick shades.

Google is not the first company to offer virtual makeup try-on experiences. Beyond social media apps, there are also AR beauty apps like YouCam Makeup, Sephora’s Virtual Artist, Ulta’s GLAMLab and others. L’Oréal also offers Live Try-On on its website, and had partnered with Facebook last year to bring virtual makeup to the site. In addition, Target’s online Beauty Studio offers virtual makeup across a number of brands and products.

YouTube’s implementation, however, is different because it’s not just a fun consumer product — it’s an AR-powered ad campaign.

Though some may scoff at the idea of virtual makeup, this market is massive. Millions watch makeup tutorials on YouTube every day, and the site has become the dominant source for referral traffic for beauty brands. In 2018, beauty-related content generated more than 169 billion views on the video platform.

You can watch the YouTube video here, or engage with the AR feature from the mobile YouTube app.

If you don’t see your face immediately after pressing the “try on” button, you probably need to update the YouTube app.

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