AMD Sales Are Booming, but High-End Ryzen 3000 CPUs Still in Short Supply


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After the Ryzen 3000 family debuted on 7nm, German retailer Mindfactory.de released data from its own CPU sales showing that demand for the smaller CPU manufacturer’s products had skyrocketed. That demand continued straight through August, but product shortages may be hampering overall sales.

Once again, Ingebor on Reddit has shared data on CPUSEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce sales, CPU revenue share, and average selling prices. The results are once again a major win for AMD, though overall shipments declined this month compared with July.

Mindfactory-Sept

While the absolute number of CPUs fell, AMD held virtually the same market share. Sales of second-generation products continue to be strong, even with third-gen Ryzen in-market. On the AMD side, shipments of the Ryzen 9 3900X fell, as did sales of the Ryzen 7 3700X, and 3800X. The Ryzen 5 3600 substantially expanded its overall market share. Intel shipments appear to have been virtually identical, in terms of which CPU SKUs were selling the best.

Mindfactory-Sept-Revenue

Now we look at the market in terms of revenue. Intel’s share is higher here, thanks to higher selling prices. The Ryzen 9 3900X made a significantly smaller revenue contribution in August, as did the Ryzen 7 3700X. Sometimes the revenue graphs show us a different side of performance compared with sales charts, but this month the two graphs generally line up as expected.

One place where the Ryzen 5 3600’s share gains definitely hit AMD is in terms of its average selling price. In June, AMD’s ASP in Euros was €238.89. In August, it slipped downwards, to €216.04, a decline of 10.5 percent. Intel’s ASPs actually improved slightly, from €296.87 to €308.36, a gain of ~4 percent. This could be read as suggesting that a few buyers saw what AMD had to offer and opted to buy a high-end Core CPUSEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce instead. And on Reddit, Ingebor notes that low availability on the Ryzen 9 3900X definitely hit AMD’s revenue share, writing:

Except for the 3900X, all Matisse CPUs where available for most of the time and sold pretty well (not so much the 3800X, which dropped in price sharply towards the end of the month). These shortages can be seen in the revenue drop and a lower average sales price compared to last month.

For most of the month, the 3900X was unavailable with a date of availability constantly pushed out by mindfactory. Seems like the amount of CPUs they got do not suffice to satisfy their backlog of orders. The next date is the 6th of September. Hopefully the next month will finally see some decent availability. Also it remains to be seen when the 3950X will start to sell and whether it will be in better supply.

Ingebor also noted that there’s been no hint of official Intel price cuts, despite rumors that the company might respond to 7nm Ryzen CPUs by enacting them.

The Limits of Retail Analysis

It’s incredibly useful that Mindfactory releases this information, but keep in mind that it represents sales at one company, in one country. We don’t doubt that AMD is seeing sales growth across its 7nm product lines, but the retail channel is a subset of the desktop market, and the desktop market is dwarfed by the laptop market.

Statista-PC-Market-Share

Data from Statista makes the point. Even if we ignore tablets, only about 36.7 percent of the computing market is desktops. Trying to estimate the size of the PC retail channel is difficult; figures I’ve seen in the past suggest it’s 10-20 percent of the space. If true, that would suggest Mindfactory, Newegg, Amazon, and similar companies collectively account for 3.6 to 7.3 percent of the overall PC market. AMD and Intel split this space, with the size of the split depending on the relative competitive standing of each company, hardware availability in the local market, and any country-specific preferences for one vendor versus the other.

This is why you’ll see websites write stories about how AMD is dominating sales at a specific retailer, followed by stories that show a relatively small gain in total market share. It’s not that either story is necessarily wrong; they capture different markets.

Overall, AMD is in a strong competitive position at the moment. Just keep in mind that data sets like this, while valuable and interesting, only capture a small section of the overall space.

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AMD’s Ryzen 3000 Family is Dominating Sales at European Retailer


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Mindfactory, a major German computer hardware retailer, has published new sales data for the month of July. AMD has had an extremely good month, even by the standards of previous Ryzen launches.

Before we dive into the numbers, the usual caveats: These figures reflect data from a single German company, not the entire retail channel. Most companies don’t publish data like this. Data from Amazon and Newegg shows somewhat different splits on the best-selling CPU cores. Amazon has AMD occupying 12 of the Top 20 best-selling chips, but only three of the parts are based on Matisse, none higher than 6th place. Newegg has AMD holding 11 of the Top 20 spots, but the first Matisse CPU is in 12th place — the Ryzen 7 3600.

This is not to imply that the Mindfactory data is wrong, but it should not be read as speaking to the entire retail market.

Reddit user Ingebor has published Mindfactory sales data for the month of June. First up, unit sales:

That’s a very strong launch month for AMD, considering that the company didn’t even go on-sale until 7/7. While AMD’s market share grew 11 percentage points, it’s the increase in total processor shipments that reflects strong demand for the new parts. In June, Mindfactory sold ~9000 – 9500 AMD CPUs and ~4000 – 4500 Intel chips. In July, AMD appears to have sold ~18,500 CPUs and just shy of 5000 Intel CPUs. It looks as though Intel demand was driven by the 9900K, 9700K, and 9600K, implying that at least some Intel fans delayed purchases to see if AMD would bring something to the table that they wanted to purchase, then pulled the trigger on upgrades of their own. A great many shoppers, however, were clearly looking for something from Team Red. It’s good to see the 3900X on this list — the chip may be difficult to find right now, but this is evidence that parts are making it to market.

The previous slide focused on unit shipments, this slide captures earned revenue. This graph is remarkable for how small the gap is between Intel’s market share (21 percent) and its revenue (25 percent). Typically, Intel revenue share is much larger — compare the previous month, when Intel was 32 percent of unit shipments but 48 percent of revenue for an example of how this trend usually moves. In order for AMD to be doing this much better in terms of overall revenue share, the only explanation is that AMD’s ASPs have increased dramatically. Looking to the next chart, we see…

Exactly that. The last time we discussed Mindfactory data, the company was reporting an average selling price (ASP) for AMD hardware of 178€. Today, AMD’s ASPs stand at 238.89€. That’s an increase of 1.34x over April. Mindfactory reports a 1.5x increase over June. This kind of improvement is why AMD was focused on raising its ASPs and cutting costs with 7nm, to allow it to compete more effectively with Intel.

AMD’s most recent quarterly forecast doesn’t predict very strong revenue growth for the rest of the year, but it blames that weakness on a weaker-than-expected console cycle. AMD has stated that its gross margin on all 7nm products is over 50 percent. Excluding the impact of lower semicustom sales, AMD expects full year Q2019 revenue to be up 20 percent. Factor in semicustom, and total revenue growth is expected to be single-digit percentage.

Overall, the data suggests Ryzen is selling very well. Intel continues to have a bulwark with gamers who want single-threaded top-end gaming performance above all other options, but third-generation Ryzen closed the gap between both companies in that area as well.

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