AMD Sales Are Booming, but High-End Ryzen 3000 CPUs Still in Short Supply


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After the Ryzen 3000 family debuted on 7nm, German retailer Mindfactory.de released data from its own CPU sales showing that demand for the smaller CPU manufacturer’s products had skyrocketed. That demand continued straight through August, but product shortages may be hampering overall sales.

Once again, Ingebor on Reddit has shared data on CPUSEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce sales, CPU revenue share, and average selling prices. The results are once again a major win for AMD, though overall shipments declined this month compared with July.

Mindfactory-Sept

While the absolute number of CPUs fell, AMD held virtually the same market share. Sales of second-generation products continue to be strong, even with third-gen Ryzen in-market. On the AMD side, shipments of the Ryzen 9 3900X fell, as did sales of the Ryzen 7 3700X, and 3800X. The Ryzen 5 3600 substantially expanded its overall market share. Intel shipments appear to have been virtually identical, in terms of which CPU SKUs were selling the best.

Mindfactory-Sept-Revenue

Now we look at the market in terms of revenue. Intel’s share is higher here, thanks to higher selling prices. The Ryzen 9 3900X made a significantly smaller revenue contribution in August, as did the Ryzen 7 3700X. Sometimes the revenue graphs show us a different side of performance compared with sales charts, but this month the two graphs generally line up as expected.

One place where the Ryzen 5 3600’s share gains definitely hit AMD is in terms of its average selling price. In June, AMD’s ASP in Euros was €238.89. In August, it slipped downwards, to €216.04, a decline of 10.5 percent. Intel’s ASPs actually improved slightly, from €296.87 to €308.36, a gain of ~4 percent. This could be read as suggesting that a few buyers saw what AMD had to offer and opted to buy a high-end Core CPUSEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce instead. And on Reddit, Ingebor notes that low availability on the Ryzen 9 3900X definitely hit AMD’s revenue share, writing:

Except for the 3900X, all Matisse CPUs where available for most of the time and sold pretty well (not so much the 3800X, which dropped in price sharply towards the end of the month). These shortages can be seen in the revenue drop and a lower average sales price compared to last month.

For most of the month, the 3900X was unavailable with a date of availability constantly pushed out by mindfactory. Seems like the amount of CPUs they got do not suffice to satisfy their backlog of orders. The next date is the 6th of September. Hopefully the next month will finally see some decent availability. Also it remains to be seen when the 3950X will start to sell and whether it will be in better supply.

Ingebor also noted that there’s been no hint of official Intel price cuts, despite rumors that the company might respond to 7nm Ryzen CPUs by enacting them.

The Limits of Retail Analysis

It’s incredibly useful that Mindfactory releases this information, but keep in mind that it represents sales at one company, in one country. We don’t doubt that AMD is seeing sales growth across its 7nm product lines, but the retail channel is a subset of the desktop market, and the desktop market is dwarfed by the laptop market.

Statista-PC-Market-Share

Data from Statista makes the point. Even if we ignore tablets, only about 36.7 percent of the computing market is desktops. Trying to estimate the size of the PC retail channel is difficult; figures I’ve seen in the past suggest it’s 10-20 percent of the space. If true, that would suggest Mindfactory, Newegg, Amazon, and similar companies collectively account for 3.6 to 7.3 percent of the overall PC market. AMD and Intel split this space, with the size of the split depending on the relative competitive standing of each company, hardware availability in the local market, and any country-specific preferences for one vendor versus the other.

This is why you’ll see websites write stories about how AMD is dominating sales at a specific retailer, followed by stories that show a relatively small gain in total market share. It’s not that either story is necessarily wrong; they capture different markets.

Overall, AMD is in a strong competitive position at the moment. Just keep in mind that data sets like this, while valuable and interesting, only capture a small section of the overall space.

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AMD Overtakes Nvidia in Graphics Shipments for First Time in 5 Years


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AMD saw its share of the graphics market surge in Q2 2019, with total shipments larger than Nvidia for the first time in five years. At the same time, Nvidia retains a hard lock on the add-in board market for desktops, with approximately two-thirds of total market share. And while these gains are significant, it’s also worth considering why they didn’t drive any particular “pop” in AMD’s overall financial figures for Q2.

First, let’s talk about the total graphics market. There are three players here: Intel, AMD, and Nvidia. Because this report considers the totality of the graphics space, and 2/3 of systems ship without a separate GPU,SEEAMAZON_ET_135 See Amazon ET commerce both AMD and Nvidia are minority players in this market. AMD, however, has an advantage — it builds CPUs with an onboard graphics solution, like Intel. Nvidia does not. Thus, we have to acknowledge that the total market space includes companies with a very different suite of products:

Intel: Integrated-only (until next year), no discrete GPUs, but accounts for a majority of total shipments.
AMD: Integrated GPUs and discrete cards, but with very little presence in upper-end mobile gaming.
Nvidia: No integrated solutions. Discrete GPUs only.

Graphics-Market-Share-JPR

According to JPR, AMD’s shipments increased by 9.8 percent, Intel shipments fell by 1.4 percent, and Nvidia shipments were flat, at 0.04 percent. This jives with reports from early in the year, which suggested that AMD would take market share from Intel due to CPU shortages. Separately from its global report, JPR also publishes a separate document on the desktop add-in board (AIB) market. This report only considers the discrete GPU space between Nvidia and AMD (Intel will compete in this space when it launches Xe next year). AMD and Nvidia split this space — and again, AMD showed significant growth, with a ten percent improvement in market share.

Image by Jon Peddie Research

If you pay attention to financial reports, however, you may recall that AMD’s Q2 2019 sales results were reasonable, but not spectacular. Both companies reported year-on-year sales declines. Nvidia’s fiscal year Q2 2020 results, which the company reported a few weeks back, showed gaming revenue falling 27 percent year-on-year. AMD doesn’t break out GPU and CPU sales — it combines them both into a single category — but its combined Compute and Graphics revenue reports were lower on a yearly basis as well:

AMD-Financial-Q2-2019

During the first half of the year, AMD was thought to be gaining market share at Intel’s expense, but these gains were largely thought to be at the low-end of the market. AMD launched its first Chromebooks with old Carrizo APUs, for example. This explains the growth in unit shipments in the total GPU space, as well as why the company didn’t show a tremendous profit from its gains. Growth in the AIB market may be explained by the sale of GPUs like the RX 570. This card has consistently been an incredibly good value — Nvidia didn’t bother distributing review GPUs for the GTX 1650 because the RX 570 is decisively faster, according to multiple reviews. But GPU sales have been down overall. According to JPR, AIB sales fell 16.6 percent quarter-to-quarter, and 39.7 percent year-on-year.

This explains why AMD’s strong market share gains didn’t translate to improved C&G sales revenue. The company earns less revenue on low-end sales compared with high-end cards. And its market share improvements have been overshadowed by a huge decline in AIB sales year-on-year, likely due to the combination of lingering crypto hangover and a weak overall enthusiast market in Q2.

Q3 will be a much more significant quarter for both companies. Not only does it typically improve on the basis of seasonality alone, but both Nvidia and AMD introduced price cuts and new products. AMD’s Navi powers the excellent 5700 and 5700 XT, which are both faster than the Nvidia refreshes of the RTX 2060 and RTX 2070 (now dubbed the RTX 2060 Super and RTX 2070 Super, respectively). Nvidia, in turn, offers ray tracing and variable rate shading — two features that are used in very few games today but may become more popular in the future. AMD lacks these features.

The two companies have staked out opposing strategies for boosting their respective market share. It’ll be interesting to see how consumers do or don’t respond to their separate value propositions.

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